{ "meta": { "name": "Heaviside", "generated_utc": "2026-11-02T21:09:15Z", "status": "final", "load_source": "FERC-714 (131,495 h); 1 hour gap-filled from EIA-930", "price_source": "GridStatus.io ercot_spp_real_time_15_min (HB_HUBAVG), from ERCOT", "hub": "HB_HUBAVG", "years": [ 2011, 2025 ], "years_with_load": [ 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 ], "years_with_price": [ 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 ], "notes": [ "Replay of history, not a forecast: every figure is what the rule would have done in the recorded hours.", "Load: FERC Form 714 (PUDL) primary with timestamps corrected to EIA-930; EIA-930 fills 1 hour(s).", "Historical load during Winter Storm Uri is served load after shedding; Lens C covers that emergency directly.", "Combined calls (selected lens + C) take the union of flagged hours and the deeper curtailment in each hour." ] }, "params": { "campus_mw": 100, "cap_mw": 80, "lens": "A", "lensA_pct_of_peak": 95, "lensB_price_threshold": 1000, "kw_per_gpu": 1.4, "gpu_usd_per_hr": 2.08, "gpu_usd_per_hr_ondemand": 3.49, "backup_usd_per_mwh": 250, "years_earlier": 3, "margin_usd_per_mw_year": 455520.0, "p_fail": 0.02, "damages_usd_per_mwh": 35685, "coc": 0.1, "quantile": 0.995, "n_sims": 10000, "seed": 20270, "portfolio_n": 10 }, "assumptions": [ { "id": "campus_mw", "label": "Campus size", "value": 100, "unit": "MW", "kind": "assumption", "source_id": null, "note": "Illustrative single campus." }, { "id": "cap_mw", "label": "Draw cap during stress (Lens A/B)", "value": 80, "unit": "MW", "kind": "assumption", "source_id": "texas-sb6-2025", "note": "Campus keeps 80% of nameplate in Lens A/B calls. Lens C (emergencies) curtails to 0 MW (Texas SB 6 firm-load-shed curtailment)." }, { "id": "lensA_pct_of_peak", "label": "Lens A threshold", "value": 95, "unit": "% of seasonal peak", "kind": "assumption", "source_id": "duke-2025", "note": "Hours where load + campus exceed this share of the year-season peak are curtailed. Duke (2025) uses 100% of the all-period (2016\u20132024) seasonal peak; a per-year 95% threshold is stricter. See the sensitivity table in REPORT.md." }, { "id": "lensB_price_threshold", "label": "Lens B price trigger", "value": 1000, "unit": "$/MWh", "kind": "assumption", "source_id": null, "note": "Hourly max of 15-minute RT SPP at HB_HUBAVG above this is treated as scarcity." }, { "id": "kw_per_gpu", "label": "Power per H100, all-in", "value": 1.4, "unit": "kW/GPU", "kind": "assumption", "source_id": "nvidia-dgx-h100", "note": "NVIDIA DGX H100: 10.2 kW max for 8 GPUs = 1.275 kW/GPU of IT load at maximum, \u00d7 PUE ~1.1 (assumed, for a new liquid-cooled AI campus) = 1.40 kW. Uptime Institute's 2025 survey average for sites of 20 MW and above is PUE 1.44 (\u2192 1.84 kW/GPU). That lowers lost compute to $1,130/MWh, still above backup, so the applied cost is unchanged." }, { "id": "gpu_usd_per_hr", "label": "H100 rental, 1-yr reserved median", "value": 2.08, "unit": "$/GPU-hr", "kind": "sourced", "source_id": "amcompute-h100", "note": "H100 SXM, 1-year term: 'from $1.81, median $2.08 (7 providers)'. List prices read 9\u201325 Oct 2026." }, { "id": "gpu_usd_per_hr_ondemand", "label": "H100 rental, on-demand median", "value": 3.49, "unit": "$/GPU-hr", "kind": "sourced", "source_id": "amcompute-h100", "note": "H100 SXM on-demand: '$1.70 to $12.29 per GPU-hour, median $3.49' (45 providers, Oct 2026)." }, { "id": "backup_usd_per_mwh", "label": "Backup generation cost", "value": 250, "unit": "$/MWh", "kind": "assumption", "source_id": "texas-sb6-2025", "note": "SB 6 lets ERCOT direct large loads to run on-site backup or curtail. All-in variable cost of on-site backup (reciprocating engines / turbines) during short calls. The model applies min(lost compute, backup)." }, { "id": "years_earlier", "label": "Years connected early", "value": 3, "unit": "years", "kind": "assumption", "source_id": null, "note": "Speed-to-power gained by accepting curtailment instead of waiting for firm service." }, { "id": "gpu_utilisation", "label": "GPU utilisation (share of GPU-hours rented)", "value": 0.7, "unit": "share", "kind": "assumption", "source_id": null, "note": "Average share of a year's GPU-hours actually rented. It scales the value of connecting early (operating margin below), not the cost of curtailment. Lost compute during a curtailment is priced at full utilisation, 1000 / 1.4 kW \u00d7 $2.08/GPU-hr = $1,486/MWh, because a cut-back idles whatever is running in that hour and stress hours are peak hours, so every idled GPU-hour is assumed to have been rented. That overstates the cost of curtailing (conservative). Here it does not bind: backup generation at $250/MWh is cheaper and is applied." }, { "id": "margin_usd_per_mw_year", "label": "Operating margin per MW-year", "value": 455520.0, "unit": "$/MW-yr", "kind": "assumption", "source_id": "amcompute-h100", "note": "(1000 / 1.4 kW) = 714.3 GPUs/MW \u00d7 8,760 h \u00d7 70% utilisation \u00d7 $2.08/GPU-hr \u00d7 5% operating margin = $455,520/MW-yr. Utilisation (see GPU utilisation) and margin are assumptions; 5% is the conservative case (25% is in the sensitivity table)." }, { "id": "p_fail", "label": "Probability a call is not delivered", "value": 0.02, "unit": "per call", "kind": "assumption", "source_id": "nerc-large-load-2024", "note": "Each call fails independently with this probability. There is no actuarial record of contracted large-load curtailment failing. The motivation: on 10 Jul 2024 about 1,500 MW of data-centre load in the Eastern Interconnection dropped off simultaneously during a 230 kV fault, ~1,260 MW of it for hours (NERC incident review). Large-load behaviour under stress is not guaranteed." }, { "id": "damages_usd_per_mwh", "label": "Damages per undelivered MWh", "value": 35685, "unit": "$/MWh", "kind": "sourced", "source_id": "ercot-voll-2024", "note": "Conservative case: ERCOT's 2024 value-of-lost-load study, $35,685/MWh for a one-hour ERCOT-wide outage (95% CI ~$25,000\u2013$53,000), i.e. what customers lose when a call is not delivered and load must be shed instead. The market's offer cap (HCAP, $5,000/MWh, 16 TAC \u00a725.509(b)(6)(B)) is the lower alternative; the premium scales linearly with damages (see the sensitivity table in REPORT.md)." }, { "id": "coc", "label": "Cost of capital on tail", "value": 0.1, "unit": "\u00d7 Q99.5", "kind": "assumption", "source_id": null, "note": "Premium = E[L] + 10% \u00d7 Q99.5(L): a 10% annual return on capital held at the 1-in-200 annual loss." }, { "id": "n_sims", "label": "Bootstrap simulations", "value": 10000, "unit": "years", "kind": "assumption", "source_id": null, "note": "Whole historical years drawn with replacement, seed 20270." } ], "sources": [ { "id": "pudl-ferc714", "title": "Public Utility Data Liberation Project (PUDL) Data Release v2026.10.0: FERC Form 714 hourly planning area demand (out_ferc714__hourly_planning_area_demand), respondent ERCOT (respondent_id_ferc714 58, EIA code 5723)", "publisher": "Catalyst Cooperative; data filed with FERC on Form 714. DOI 10.5281/zenodo.23375698", "date": "2026-10-14", "url": "https://s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/pudl.catalyst.coop/stable/out_ferc714__hourly_planning_area_demand.parquet", "note": "Docs: https://docs.catalyst.coop/pudl/en/stable/data_sources/ferc714.html. PUDL notes that datetime_utc was 'cleaned due to inconsistent datetime reporting'. We found and corrected a further offset for ERCOT against EIA-930 (REPORT.md, Method).", "accessed": "2026-10-30" }, { "id": "eia930", "title": "EIA-930 Hourly Electric Grid Monitor, six-month balance files (EIA930_BALANCE_*), balancing authority ERCO; Demand (MW) (Adjusted)", "publisher": "U.S. Energy Information Administration", "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/gridmonitor/sixMonthFiles/", "note": "Used to cross-check FERC 714 (2015\u20132025) and to fill the one hour it lacks. About the data: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/930-content/about.html (hour-ending convention; first date 1 Jul 2015).", "accessed": "2026-10-30" }, { "id": "gridstatus-rtspp", "title": "ERCOT SPP Real Time 15 Min (dataset id ercot_spp_real_time_15_min), location HB_HUBAVG, resampled server-side to hourly max and mean", "publisher": "GridStatus.io; data sourced from ERCOT", "date": "2026-10-30", "url": "https://www.gridstatus.io/datasets/ercot_spp_real_time_15_min", "note": "Pulled through the GridStatus.io API (gridstatusio client 0.16.1) on 2026-10-30. The dataset web page returned HTTP 403 to automated fetches.", "accessed": "2026-10-30" }, { "id": "amcompute-h100", "title": "H100 cloud pricing: from $1.70/hr across 45 providers (Oct 2026)", "publisher": "AMCompute", "date": "2026-10-25", "url": "https://amcompute.com/gpu-cloud-prices/h100", "note": "'Updated October 25, 2026'. List prices read from providers 9\u201325 Oct 2026; the lowest listed price per provider and commitment.", "accessed": "2026-10-30" }, { "id": "utilitydive-icf-2026", "title": "How load flexibility buys time for America's data center boom (opinion; S. Muthiah and H. Parmar, ICF)", "publisher": "Utility Dive", "date": "2026-06-09", "url": "https://www.utilitydive.com/news/how-load-flexibility-buys-time-data-center-boom-icf/822355/", "note": "$32/kW-year is Public Service Co. of Oklahoma's demand-response procurement, set against '$100+/kW-year for BTM generation at a data center'. ~80 h/yr average and 300\u2013400+ h/yr extreme curtailment come from ICF's PJM modelling.", "accessed": "2026-10-30" }, { "id": "duke-2025", "title": "Rethinking Load Growth: Assessing the Potential for Integration of Large Flexible Loads in US Power Systems (NI R 25-01). Norris, Profeta, Patino-Echeverri and Cowie-Haskell", "publisher": "Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability, Duke University", "date": "2025-02-11", "url": "https://nicholasinstitute.duke.edu/sites/default/files/publications/rethinking-load-growth.pdf", "note": "Method pp.15\u201317 and App. C (p.38). ERCOT headroom from Fig. 1/Fig. 8 (6.5 / 10.0 / 14.7 GW at 0.25 / 0.5 / 1%); durations read from Fig. 11; 22-BA averages from p.20 and Fig. 10.", "accessed": "2026-10-30" }, { "id": "nerc-large-load-2024", "title": "Incident Review: Considering Simultaneous Voltage-Sensitive Load Reductions", "publisher": "North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC)", "date": "2025-01-08", "url": "https://www.nerc.com/pa/rrm/ea/Documents/Incident_Review_Large_Load_Loss.pdf", "note": "10 Jul 2024, Eastern Interconnection: ~1,500 MW of 'exclusively data center-type load' lost after a 230 kV fault; ~1,260 MW 'did not return for hours'.", "accessed": "2026-10-30" }, { "id": "puct-hcap", "title": "16 Tex. Admin. Code \u00a725.509(b)(6)(B): 'The high system-wide offer cap (HCAP) will be $5,000 per MWh'", "publisher": "Public Utility Commission of Texas (via Cornell LII)", "date": "2023-12-20", "url": "https://www.law.cornell.edu/regulations/texas/16-Tex-Admin-Code-SS-25-509", "note": "HCAP lowered from $9,000 to $5,000/MWh effective 1 Jan 2022 (PUCT Project 52631, Dec 2021; \u00a725.505 history, eff. 12/22/2021). Earlier caps: $3,000 (2011), $4,500 (Aug 2012), $5,000 (Jun 2013), $7,000 (Jun 2014), $9,000 (Jun 2015), per National Law Review, 2012-04-23.", "accessed": "2026-10-30" }, { "id": "latitude-ercot-queue-2025", "title": "ERCOT's large load queue has nearly quadrupled in a single year", "publisher": "Latitude Media (Catherine Boudreau)", "date": "2025-12-03", "url": "https://www.latitudemedia.com/news/ercots-large-load-queue-has-nearly-quadrupled-in-a-single-year/", "note": "'Texas grid operator ERCOT has about 226 gigawatts of large load customers in its interconnection queue as of November.' About 77% from large data centres. ERCOT's Dec 2025 System Planning update gives ~226 GW as of 18 Nov 2025; later counts are higher (233 GW at the 9 Dec board meeting).", "accessed": "2026-10-30" }, { "id": "uh-hobby-uri-2021", "title": "New Report Details Impact of Winter Storm Uri on Texans", "publisher": "University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs", "date": "2021-03-29", "url": "https://uh.edu/news-events/stories/2021/march-2021/03292021-hobby-winter-storm.php", "note": "'Winter Storm Uri left close to 4.5 million Texas homes and businesses without power at its peak.'", "accessed": "2026-10-30" }, { "id": "ercot-voll-2024", "title": "Value of Lost Load Study for the ERCOT Region (Brattle: C. Gibbons, S. Sergici), filed by ERCOT in PUCT Project No. 55837", "publisher": "The Brattle Group for ERCOT", "date": "2024-08-22", "url": "https://www.brattle.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Value-of-Lost-Load-Study-for-the-ERCOT-Region.pdf", "note": "One-hour ERCOT-wide VOLL $35,685/MWh (95% CI ~$25,000\u2013$53,000). Used as the default (conservative) damages per undelivered MWh.", "accessed": "2026-10-30" }, { "id": "nvidia-dgx-h100", "title": "NVIDIA DGX H100/H200 User Guide: Introduction ('10.2 kW max', 8\u00d7 H100)", "publisher": "NVIDIA", "date": "2026-10-17", "url": "https://docs.nvidia.com/dgx/dgxh100-user-guide/introduction-to-dgxh100.html", "note": "Datasheet copy (May 2023): https://www.megware.com/fileadmin/user_upload/LandingPage%20NVIDIA/nvidia-dgx-h100-datasheet.pdf", "accessed": "2026-10-30" }, { "id": "uptime-2025", "title": "Uptime Institute Global Data Center Survey 2025 (Keynote Report 180)", "publisher": "Uptime Institute", "date": "2025-07-01", "url": "https://datacenter.uptimeinstitute.com/rs/711-RIA-145/images/2025.Annual.Survey.Report.pdf", "note": "Weighted average PUE 1.54; sites of 20 MW and above 1.44. Used for the kW/GPU sensitivity.", "accessed": "2026-10-30" }, { "id": "texas-sb6-2025", "title": "Texas SB 6, 89th Legislature (enrolled): Utilities Code \u00a7\u00a737.0561, 39.170 (large loads)", "publisher": "Texas Legislature", "date": "2025-06-20", "url": "https://capitol.texas.gov/tlodocs/89R/billtext/html/SB00006F.htm", "note": "\u00a739.170(a): equipment and protocol 'to allow the load to be curtailed during firm load shed' for transmission-voltage loads interconnected after 31 Dec 2025. \u00a737.0561(e): after deploying all available market services, ERCOT may direct a large load to deploy backup generation or curtail. Threshold 75 MW (\u00a737.0561(c)). Signed 20 Jun 2025.", "accessed": "2026-10-30" }, { "id": "ev-energy-6d5548", "title": "The Timeline and Events of the February 2021 Texas Electric Grid Blackouts (UT Austin Energy Institute, July 2021)", "publisher": "University of Texas at Austin Energy Institute (not ERCOT)", "date": "2021-07-14", "url": "https://energy.utexas.edu/sites/default/files/UTAustin%20(2021)%20EventsFebruary2021TexasBlackout%2020210714.pdf", "accessed": "2026-10-30" }, { "id": "ev-ftp-c22a24", "title": "2011 State of the Market Report for the ERCOT Wholesale Electricity Markets (Potomac Economics, July 2012)", "publisher": "Potomac Economics, ERCOT Independent Market Monitor (not ERCOT)", "date": "2012-07-01", "url": "https://ftp.puc.texas.gov/public/puct-info/industry/electric/reports/ERCOT_annual_reports/2011annualreport.pdf", "accessed": "2026-10-30" }, { "id": "ev-appalachianpower-9563e0", "title": "ERCOT Enters Energy Emergency Alert Level 1 (ERCOT release, 27 Jun 2011)", "publisher": "ERCOT news release, reposted verbatim by AEP / Appalachian Power", "date": "2011-06-27", "url": "https://www.appalachianpower.com/company/news/view?releaseID=2467", "accessed": "2026-10-30" }, { "id": "ev-appalachianpower-f1eaea", "title": "ERCOT expecting high demand, additional capacity for Tuesday (ERCOT release, 27 Jun 2011)", "publisher": "ERCOT news release, reposted verbatim by AEP / Appalachian Power", "date": "2011-06-27", "url": "https://www.appalachianpower.com/company/news/view?releaseID=2468", "accessed": "2026-10-30" }, { "id": "ev-appalachianpower-c9bb50", "title": "Power Watch: Energy conservation encouraged 3-7 pm today (ERCOT release, 14 Jul 2011)", "publisher": "ERCOT news release, reposted verbatim by AEP / Appalachian Power", "date": "2011-07-14", "url": "https://www.appalachianpower.com/company/news/view?releaseID=2477", "accessed": "2026-10-30" }, { "id": "ev-appalachianpower-e2929a", "title": "Consumers asked to conserve electricity 3-7 pm today and this week (ERCOT release, 1 Aug 2011)", "publisher": "ERCOT news release, reposted verbatim by AEP / Appalachian Power", "date": "2011-08-01", "url": "https://www.appalachianpower.com/company/news/view?releaseID=2487", "accessed": "2026-10-30" }, { "id": "ev-appalachianpower-640005", "title": "ERCOT breaks peak demand record again on Tuesday (ERCOT release, 2 Aug 2011)", "publisher": "ERCOT news release, reposted verbatim by AEP / Appalachian Power", "date": "2011-08-02", "url": "https://www.appalachianpower.com/company/news/view?releaseID=2490", "accessed": "2026-10-30" }, { "id": "ev-appalachianpower-16f7ca", "title": "Power Watch - Conservation Needed (ERCOT release, 2 Aug 2011)", "publisher": "ERCOT news release, reposted verbatim by AEP / Appalachian Power", "date": "2011-08-02", "url": "https://www.appalachianpower.com/company/news/view?releaseID=2489", "accessed": "2026-10-30" }, { "id": "ev-appalachianpower-608580", "title": "ERCOT breaks peak demand record third time (ERCOT release, 3 Aug 2011)", "publisher": "ERCOT news release, reposted verbatim by AEP / Appalachian Power", "date": "2011-08-03", "url": "https://www.appalachianpower.com/company/news/view?releaseID=2492", "accessed": "2026-10-30" }, { "id": "ev-appalachianpower-bafc1f", "title": "Power Warning - Conservation Critical (ERCOT release, 4 Aug 2011)", "publisher": "ERCOT news release, reposted verbatim by AEP / Appalachian Power", "date": "2011-08-04", "url": "https://www.appalachianpower.com/company/news/view?releaseID=2495", "accessed": "2026-10-30" }, { "id": "ev-appalachianpower-4653a1", "title": "Level 2 emergency cancelled; interruptible loads restored (ERCOT release, 4 Aug 2011)", "publisher": "ERCOT news release, reposted verbatim by AEP / Appalachian Power", "date": "2011-08-04", "url": "https://www.appalachianpower.com/company/news/view?releaseID=2497", "accessed": "2026-10-30" }, { "id": "ev-appalachianpower-c4de2c", "title": "Consumers asked to conserve electricity 3-7 pm today and next week (ERCOT/PUCT release, 5 Aug 2011)", "publisher": "ERCOT news release, reposted verbatim by AEP / Appalachian Power", "date": "2011-08-05", "url": "https://www.appalachianpower.com/company/news/view?releaseID=2500", "accessed": "2026-10-30" }, { "id": "ev-appalachianpower-42bec2", "title": "Power Watch - Conservation Needed: ERCOT in level 1 emergency; Consumers asked to conserve until 7 p.m. today (ERCOT release, 23 Aug 2011)", "publisher": "ERCOT news release, reposted verbatim by AEP / Appalachian Power", "date": "2011-08-23", "url": "https://www.appalachianpower.com/company/news/view?releaseID=2506", "accessed": "2026-10-30" }, { "id": "ev-appalachianpower-3cdc2a", "title": "Statement from ERCOT CEO Trip Doggett on the need for conservation through the weekend (ERCOT, 26 Aug 2011)", "publisher": "ERCOT news release, reposted verbatim by AEP / Appalachian Power", "date": "2011-08-26", "url": "https://www.appalachianpower.com/company/news/view?releaseID=2508", "accessed": "2026-10-30" }, { "id": "ev-senate-1c7491", "title": "Business and Commerce Quarterly Update (ERCOT CEO Trip Doggett to Texas Senate Business & Commerce Committee, 15 Jan 2014)", "publisher": "ERCOT (hosted by the Texas Senate)", "date": "2014-01-15", "url": "https://senate.texas.gov/cmtes/83/c510/QR_0114-ERCOT.pdf", "accessed": "2026-10-30" }, { "id": "ev-interchange-207e83", "title": "ERCOT's Report of Emergency Event for Operating Day August 13, 2019 (ERCOT filing, PUCT Project 27706 item 413, filed 19 Aug 2019)", "publisher": "ERCOT filing, PUCT Project 27706", "date": "2019-08-19", "url": "https://interchange.puc.texas.gov/Documents/27706_413_1030232.PDF", "accessed": "2026-10-30" }, { "id": "ev-interchange-5b5c08", "title": "ERCOT's Report of Emergency Event for Operating Day August 15, 2019 (ERCOT filing, PUCT Project 27706 item 415, Aug 2019)", "publisher": "ERCOT filing, PUCT Project 27706", "date": "2019-08-01", "url": "https://interchange.puc.texas.gov/Documents/27706_415_1030610.PDF", "accessed": "2026-10-30" }, { "id": "ev-nerc-b26fe3", "title": "The February 2021 Cold Weather Outages in Texas and the South Central United States (FERC/NERC/Regional Entity staff report, Nov 2021)", "publisher": "FERC, NERC and Regional Entity staff (not ERCOT)", "date": "2021-11-16", "url": "https://www.nerc.com/pa/rrm/ea/Documents/February_2021_Cold_Weather_Report.pdf", "accessed": "2026-10-30" }, { "id": "ev-krgv-de1e33", "title": "ERCOT: Grid remains strong during record demand, energy conservation request continues (KRGV, 15 Jun 2021)", "publisher": "KRGV (press, not ERCOT)", "date": "2021-06-15", "url": "https://www.krgv.com/news/ercot-grid-remains-strong-during-record-demand-energy-conservation-request-continues", "accessed": "2026-10-30" }, { "id": "ev-texastribune-b1e678", "title": "Texans asked to limit electricity use after six power plants go down ahead of a hot weekend (Texas Tribune, 13 May 2022)", "publisher": "The Texas Tribune (press, not ERCOT)", "date": "2022-05-13", "url": "https://www.texastribune.org/2022/05/13/texas-power-conservation-heat/", "accessed": "2026-10-30" }, { "id": "ev-oncor-f6c2e3", "title": "ERCOT Issues Conservation Appeal to Texans and Texas Businesses (Oncor, reprinting ERCOT release, 11 Jul 2022)", "publisher": "ERCOT release reposted by Oncor", "date": "2022-07-11", "url": "https://www.oncor.com/content/oncorwww/wire/en/home/newsroom/ercot-issues-conservation-appeal-to-texans-and-texas-businesses.html", "accessed": "2026-10-30" }, { "id": "ev-oncor-084b47", "title": "July 13: ERCOT Issues Conservation Appeal to Texans and Businesses (Oncor, reprinting ERCOT release, 13 Jul 2022)", "publisher": "ERCOT release reposted by Oncor", "date": "2022-07-13", "url": "https://www.oncor.com/content/oncorwww/wire/en/home/newsroom/july-13--ercot-issues-conservation-appeal-to-texans-and-business.html", "accessed": "2026-10-30" }, { "id": "ev-oncor-60fbfd", "title": "ERCOT Issues Voluntary Conservation Notice (Oncor, reprinting ERCOT release, 20 Jun 2023)", "publisher": "ERCOT release reposted by Oncor", "date": "2023-06-20", "url": "https://www.oncor.com/content/oncorwww/wire/en/home/newsroom/ercot-issues-voluntary-conservation-notice.html", "accessed": "2026-10-30" }, { "id": "ev-medinaec-952e81", "title": "ERCOT Voluntary Conservation Notice - August 17, 2023 (Medina Electric Cooperative, 17 Aug 2023)", "publisher": "Medina Electric Cooperative (not ERCOT)", "date": "2023-08-17", "url": "https://www.medinaec.org/ercot-voluntary-conservation-notice-august-17-2023", "accessed": "2026-10-30" }, { "id": "ev-nbcdfw-995dec", "title": "ERCOT issues voluntary conservation notice Sunday amid extreme heat and high demand for power (NBC DFW, 20 Aug 2023)", "publisher": "NBC DFW (press, not ERCOT)", "date": "2023-08-20", "url": "https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/local/ercot-issues-voluntary-conservation-notice-due-to-extreme-temperatures-and-high-demand-for-power/3320412/", "accessed": "2026-10-30" }, { "id": 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"uri_customers_without_power": 4500000, "uri_source_id": "uh-hobby-uri-2021", "typical_year": 2020, "typical_year_hours": 105 }, "validation": [ { "id": "duke_gw_0_25pct", "metric": "ERCOT curtailment-limited headroom at 0.25% (Duke method, 2016\u20132024)", "ours": 6.568350208757204, "published": "6.5 GW", "published_value": 6.5, "rel_diff": 0.010515416731877555, "source_id": "duke-2025", "verdict": "match", "note": "Apples-to-apples: Duke's exact threshold and rate definitions on our load data." }, { "id": "duke_gw_0_5pct", "metric": "ERCOT curtailment-limited headroom at 0.50% (Duke method, 2016\u20132024)", "ours": 10.080276308019652, "published": "10.0 GW", "published_value": 10.0, "rel_diff": 0.008027630801965202, "source_id": "duke-2025", "verdict": "match", "note": "Apples-to-apples: Duke's exact threshold and rate definitions on our load data." }, { "id": "duke_gw_1pct", "metric": "ERCOT curtailment-limited headroom at 1.00% (Duke method, 2016\u20132024)", "ours": 14.779290164466373, "published": "14.7 GW", "published_value": 14.7, "rel_diff": 0.005393888739209066, "source_id": "duke-2025", "verdict": "match", "note": "Apples-to-apples: Duke's exact threshold and rate definitions on our load data." }, { "id": "duke_gw_5pct", "metric": "ERCOT curtailment-limited headroom at 5.00% (Duke method, 2016\u20132024)", "ours": 28.97554070959021, "published": "29.0 GW (chart reading)", "published_value": 29.0, "rel_diff": -0.000843423807234161, "source_id": "duke-2025", "verdict": "match", "note": "Apples-to-apples: Duke's exact threshold and rate definitions on our load data." }, { "id": "ferc714_vs_eia930", "metric": "Hourly load, FERC 714 vs EIA-930, mean abs % difference (worst year)", "ours": 0.61168795717074, "published": "EIA-930 ERCO hourly demand (independent series)", "source_id": "eia930", "verdict": "match", "note": "Worst year 2024; hourly correlation \u2265 0.9988 in every year 2015\u20132025 after the FERC 714 timestamp correction." }, { "id": "icf_avg_hours", "metric": "Lens A curtailment hours per year (average)", "ours": 93.53333333333333, "published": "~80 hrs/yr (ICF, PJM modelling)", "source_id": "utilitydive-icf-2026", "verdict": "match", "note": "Same order of magnitude. ICF models PJM, not ERCOT, and its trigger differs, so this is a plausibility check, not a replication. Lens A hours scale strongly with the threshold." }, { "id": "icf_extreme_hours", "metric": "Lens A hours in the worst replay year", "ours": 186, "published": "300\u2013400+ hrs/yr in extreme conditions (ICF, PJM)", "source_id": "utilitydive-icf-2026", "verdict": "partial", "note": "Worst year 2023. Our seasonal-peak threshold resets every year, so a hot year raises its own threshold. That caps Lens A's extreme years below ICF's." }, { "id": "duke_duration", "metric": "ERCOT mean curtailment event duration at 0.5% (Duke method)", "ours": 6.241176470588235, "published": "~1.1 h (Duke Fig. 11, chart reading)", "source_id": "duke-2025", "verdict": "mismatch", "note": "Duke's event-duration definition is not specified precisely enough to reproduce." }, { "id": "lensA_duration", "metric": "Lens A mean event duration (100 MW campus)", "ours": 3.8438356164383563, "published": "~2 h average events (Duke, 22-BA average at 0.5%: 2.1 h)", "source_id": "duke-2025", "verdict": "partial", "note": "Different definitions: Duke adds GW-scale load against an all-period peak; Lens A uses a 95% year-season threshold." }, { "id": "lensA_partial", "metric": "Share of Lens A flagged hours where the campus still draws \u226550%", "ours": 1.0, "published": "88% of curtailment hours retain \u226550% of new load (Duke, 22-BA average at 0.25%)", "source_id": "duke-2025", "verdict": "match", "note": "By construction Lens A sheds at most C \u2212 K = 20%, so every flagged hour keeps \u226580%." } ], "headline": { "sentence": "Replaying ERCOT 2011\u20132025, a 100 MW data centre capped at 80 MW during stress (and switched off in grid emergencies) was called 102 hours a year on average, giving up 0.32% of its energy. Connecting 3 years early was worth 65 times the cost of those curtailments. Guaranteeing every call, with a capital charge on the 1-in-200 year, costs 7.5% of the annual value of connecting early (9.1% with the curtailment cost included), at $34.26/kW-year against $100+/kW-year for behind-the-meter generation.", "numbers": [ { "id": "burden", "label": "Curtailment burden", "value": 102.2, "unit": "hours/yr", "display": "102 h/yr (0.32% of energy)" }, { "id": "cost_vs_value", "label": "Value of connecting early \u00f7 curtailment cost", "value": 64.6714927468211, "unit": "\u00d7", "display": "65\u00d7" }, { "id": "premium_share", "label": "Guarantee premium \u00f7 annual value of connecting early", "value": 7.521737474582496, "unit": "%", "display": "7.5% (9.1% with curtailment cost)" }, { "id": "premium", "label": "Guarantee premium", "value": 34.263018544218184, "unit": "$/kW-yr", "display": "$34.26/kW-yr (34% of behind-the-meter $100+)" } ] }, "guarantee_grid": [ { "campus_mw": 80, "cap_mw": 80, "premium_usd_per_year": 1115275.2, "premium_usd_per_kw_year": 13.94094, "q995_usd": 5709600.0 }, { "campus_mw": 90, "cap_mw": 80, "premium_usd_per_year": 2126937.813, "premium_usd_per_kw_year": 23.63264236666667, "q995_usd": 8564400.0 }, { "campus_mw": 100, "cap_mw": 80, "premium_usd_per_year": 3426301.8544218186, "premium_usd_per_kw_year": 34.263018544218184, "q995_usd": 14277568.499999428 }, { "campus_mw": 101, "cap_mw": 80, "premium_usd_per_year": 3570641.0442421287, "premium_usd_per_kw_year": 35.35288162615969, "q995_usd": 14991446.924999401 }, { "campus_mw": 105, "cap_mw": 80, "premium_usd_per_year": 4237328.268468752, "premium_usd_per_kw_year": 40.355507318750014, "q995_usd": 18734625.0 }, { "campus_mw": 120, "cap_mw": 80, "premium_usd_per_year": 5953903.215571217, "premium_usd_per_kw_year": 49.615860129760144, "q995_usd": 24897727.89219652 }, { "campus_mw": 150, "cap_mw": 80, "premium_usd_per_year": 9931781.695875006, "premium_usd_per_kw_year": 66.21187797250003, "q995_usd": 42465150.0 }, { "campus_mw": 200, "cap_mw": 80, "premium_usd_per_year": 16721935.000570323, "premium_usd_per_kw_year": 83.60967500285162, "q995_usd": 72797400.0 }, { "campus_mw": 300, "cap_mw": 80, "premium_usd_per_year": 30532633.6532344, "premium_usd_per_kw_year": 101.77544551078134, "q995_usd": 133461900.0 }, { "campus_mw": 100, "cap_mw": 100, "premium_usd_per_year": 1394094.0, "premium_usd_per_kw_year": 13.94094, "q995_usd": 7137000.0 }, { "campus_mw": 100, "cap_mw": 90, "premium_usd_per_year": 2268211.7914218754, "premium_usd_per_kw_year": 22.682117914218754, "q995_usd": 9278100.0 }, { "campus_mw": 100, "cap_mw": 81, "premium_usd_per_year": 3289158.4519218216, "premium_usd_per_kw_year": 32.89158451921821, "q995_usd": 13563690.074999457 }, { "campus_mw": 100, "cap_mw": 80, "premium_usd_per_year": 3426301.8544218186, "premium_usd_per_kw_year": 34.263018544218184, "q995_usd": 14277568.499999428 }, { "campus_mw": 100, "cap_mw": 79, "premium_usd_per_year": 3563420.9651015038, "premium_usd_per_kw_year": 35.634209651015034, "q995_usd": 14991446.924999401 }, { "campus_mw": 100, "cap_mw": 60, "premium_usd_per_year": 5732480.980382814, "premium_usd_per_kw_year": 57.32480980382814, "q995_usd": 24265800.0 }, { "campus_mw": 100, "cap_mw": 40, "premium_usd_per_year": 8239911.852960941, "premium_usd_per_kw_year": 82.39911852960941, "q995_usd": 36398700.0 }, { "campus_mw": 100, "cap_mw": 20, "premium_usd_per_year": 10735405.126570318, "premium_usd_per_kw_year": 107.35405126570318, "q995_usd": 48531600.0 }, { "campus_mw": 100, "cap_mw": 0, "premium_usd_per_year": 13223478.169078134, "premium_usd_per_kw_year": 132.23478169078135, "q995_usd": 60664500.0 } ] }